Cairo

Source: Al-Wafd newspaper

Dr. Ali Mohamed Al-Khouri

Wars and climate change are among the most serious challenges threatening the sustainability of natural resources and the stability of human societies. Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the world has witnessed a rise in global temperatures at a rate exceeding 1.1 degrees Celsius, as indicated by reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This severe climate change has resulted in widespread threats to ecosystems and the continued deterioration of vital resources that provide humanity with its basic needs.

The negative effects of climate change cannot be limited to melting glaciers and rising sea levels; they also include phenomena that threaten coastal cities and small islands with submergence and the erosion of arable wetlands. According to estimates by the World Meteorological Organization, sea levels could rise by up to 1.1 meters by 2100 if current rates of carbon emissions continue. This rise poses a clear threat to food security and places the international community in front of a multi-dimensional environmental and food crisis that threatens the lives of millions who depend on these areas for food production.

On the other hand, increasing natural disasters such as floods, droughts and severe storms are contributing to the exacerbation of humanitarian crises. In 2020 alone, more than fifty million people were affected by climate-related disasters, according to UN reports, resulting in huge human and material losses and severe damage to the agricultural sector, contributing to food production shortages and rising global prices. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, about 690 million people suffer from hunger, and climate change is playing a major role in exacerbating this problem.

Under these stressful circumstances, the destructive role that wars and conflicts play on the environment and vital resources cannot be ignored, especially in the context of worsening climate change. Wars are no longer just armed conflicts between conflicting parties; they have become a major factor that multiplies the effects of climate change, contributing to the destruction of local environments, the depletion of natural resources, and the exacerbation of their pollution.

For example, the conflict in Syria has destroyed about 40% of the water and sanitation infrastructure, leaving millions of people suffering from severe water shortages, at a time when the region is already suffering from recurring droughts caused by climate change.

In Yemen, the effects of conflict are intertwined with climate change, with more than 20 million people facing severe water scarcity due to the destruction of infrastructure and the scarcity of renewable groundwater due to rising temperatures. Similarly, Libya’s water infrastructure has been severely deteriorated due to ongoing conflicts, with 80% of the water system out of service, increasing the risk of waterborne diseases such as cholera and typhoid, while climate change is exacerbating crises through the decline in available water resources and the desertification of agricultural land.
In the Gaza Strip, the current situation is exacerbating the water crisis in light of the effects of climate change, which leads to increased salinity of groundwater. According to reports by the Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Monitor and the Global Institute for Water, Environment and Health, 97% of the water in Gaza is unfit for drinking and human consumption, making the population of the Strip more vulnerable to the repercussions of climate change and conflicts together.

These examples show that the repercussions of wars and conflicts are not limited to the local environment of the affected countries, but extend in a complex and mutually influential interaction to significantly affect regional ecosystems. This interaction is not limited to the destruction of vital resources, but also contributes to the exacerbation of the climate crisis by depleting natural resources, destroying environmental infrastructure, and increasing pollution rates. These interconnected factors threaten the stability of ecosystems and weaken the ability to meet the challenges of climate change.

As the effects of climate change worsen, new challenges have emerged that could lead to more troubling and violent local and regional conflicts. The scarcity of basic resources such as water and food has become a major factor in fueling conflicts, especially in areas suffering from drought and high temperatures, such as the Sahel and West Africa. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees estimates that prolonged droughts in these areas have displaced more than 4.2 million people and increased conflicts between local communities, which shows that climate change goes beyond being a purely environmental crisis, but extends beyond it, to affect social and political stability.

Climate change is also fueling a new axis of geopolitical competition among global powers seeking control over untapped oil, natural gas and mineral resources. The US Geological Survey estimates that the melting Arctic holds about 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil reserves and 30% of its natural gas reserves, potentially putting the Arctic at the heart of a new tension between major powers and leaving the region’s fragile environment vulnerable to overexploitation.
Despite these enormous challenges, there is hope that climate change can be mitigated by shifting to renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and hydropower. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), renewable energy could meet about 90% of global electricity needs by 2050, which would help reduce carbon emissions and promote climate stability.

In addition, protecting forests is a key step in mitigating climate change; the Food and Agriculture Organization indicates that forests absorb about 2.6 billion tons of carbon dioxide annually. In other words, intensifying efforts to combat deforestation and reforestation programs can be an effective solution to address the climate crisis. Adopting strategies to adapt to the effects of climate change, such as developing sustainable irrigation systems and building natural barriers to protect coastal areas, is also an essential part of the comprehensive solution.

However, it is logical to realize that efforts to combat climate change and protect natural resources will not achieve real success without international stability and peace. To achieve this, countries must adopt integrated and joint policies to confront this global crisis, intensify cooperation in the fields of research, development and technology transfer, in addition to actually committing to their commitments under the Paris Climate Agreement.

Joint initiatives, such as the European Green Deal, can also serve as a model for effective international cooperation, given the remarkable results and achievements they have achieved, such as reducing carbon emissions by more than 20% since the launch of the deal, increasing the area of ​​protected areas to reach 30% of the EU’s land and water, improving energy efficiency in buildings and industries, and establishing collective financing funds to achieve a comprehensive and sustainable environmental transformation.

In general, in light of the existential challenges facing the world, governments and international organizations must question the extent to which they are prepared to abandon narrow interests for the collective good of humanity. Climate change and armed conflicts cannot be reduced to transient environmental or political crises; rather, they are existential threats that require an immediate and decisive international response. Without serious and responsible steps, they will leave a legacy of destruction and disability for future generations. Taking environmental responsibility is an imperative, and it cannot be left to chance and fate.