Critical Turns in the Arab World

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Date: 03 - 03 - 2025

Cairo

Source: Al-Wafd newspaper

Dr. Ali Mohamed Al-Khouri

The Arab world is witnessing profound and rapid transformations that are shaping the region’s future, as demographic and climate changes intersect with political crises and digital transformations. These changes are not merely abstract challenges; they also carry unprecedented opportunities that require a thorough understanding and a comprehensive strategic vision from decision-makers.

Population growth in the Arab world represents one of the primary drivers of these transformations. The region’s population has reached 450 million, with youth constituting more than 60% of this number. This demographic structure can be a source of strength or a burden depending on how it is invested. On the one hand, this human potential can become an engine of economic growth and innovation if investments are made in quality education, vocational training, entrepreneurship, and support for technology and digitalization to create jobs and boost economic productivity. On the other hand, the population increase places enormous pressure on education, the labor market, and infrastructure. For example, youth unemployment rates in Arab countries are among the highest in the world, reaching 25%, compared to a global average of just 13%. This reality requires a comprehensive restructuring of labor markets and vocational training programs to keep pace with technological developments and future economic needs.

In another context, climate change casts a heavy shadow over the Arab region, which is among the most affected by rising temperatures, water scarcity, and the degradation of agricultural land. According to United Nations reports, water scarcity is expected to increase by 50% by 2050, threatening food security and increasing the likelihood of conflicts over natural resources. Indeed, water and food security is not only an environmental issue; it is also a fundamental pillar of social and political stability. Addressing this challenge requires adopting modern irrigation and water management technologies, as well as investing in renewable energy to offset the challenges posed by climate change to traditional sectors.

On the political front, crises are deepening with the escalation of armed conflicts and the increase in foreign interference in the region’s affairs. The protracted conflicts in Syria, Yemen, and Libya, along with the ongoing unrest in Palestine, have not only created catastrophic humanitarian crises and displaced millions, but have also fundamentally impacted the structure of the nation-state and the concept of sovereignty. This reality requires, more than ever, comprehensive strategies based on achieving internal and regional balance and working to end foreign interference, which adds further complexity to the region’s political, social, and economic landscape.

Digital transformation in the Arab region is one of the most prominent features of the current phase. The increase in internet usage from 35% in 2013 to more than 70% in 2023 reflects changes in lifestyles and economic and social interactions. The digital economy represents a tremendous opportunity to diversify sources of income, especially in the Gulf countries seeking to reduce their dependence on oil. However, the acceleration of digitization comes with significant challenges related to cybersecurity and privacy protection, as the region has witnessed a significant increase in cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure. According to a report issued by Positive Technologies, the number of successful cyberattacks in the Middle East tripled, or 200%, by 2024. Overcoming these obstacles requires adopting strong legal and regulatory frameworks, in addition to strengthening national technical capabilities.

Despite the challenges ahead, the opportunities to be exploited are also enormous. Investment in education and vocational training is a cornerstone for achieving sustainable development, with Arab countries needing to redefine the concept and system of education to include innovation and entrepreneurship. Developing a green economy is also an important pillar for transforming climate challenges into economic opportunities, as the region possesses tremendous potential in solar and wind energy, which could serve as a sustainable economic alternative.

The transformations taking place in the Arab world are not merely crises or obstacles; they represent an opportunity to reshape the region’s future. Enhancing regional cooperation in the areas of security, trade, and education can be a driving force for stability and development. The role played by international powers in the region requires Arab countries to strengthen the independence of their strategic decisions and build international partnerships based on mutual interests.

The region cannot remain stuck in a cycle of chronic conflicts and problems. It must break out of these vicious cycles, address the root causes of the problems, and adopt bold, long-term strategies, particularly those related to unemployment and exhausted and sagging economic structures. The Arab world stands today on the threshold of a future that could be more stable if challenges are addressed realistically and consciously, and opportunities are invested wisely and with careful planning.