Cairo
Source: Al-Wafd Newspaper
Prof. Dr. Ali Mohammed Al-Khouri
The greatest challenge facing the Arab world today is not a lack of resources or opportunities, but rather the absence of a strategic vision capable of transforming these resources and opportunities into a comprehensive project. Amidst the global wave of accelerating technological, economic, and geopolitical transformations, large segments of the region remain captive to a culture of crisis management, instead of adopting a genuine transformation project in both economic and social models that would establish national systems capable of competing in global value chains.
In political and economic thought, a strategic vision is defined as a decision that establishes a long-term development path, obligating societies to take steps—which may be arduous—to protect their future interests. At its core, this vision represents a collective awareness of the principle of “path dependency” in the social sciences. This principle indicates that choices made now shape the framework within which society and the state will operate in the future, determining the nature of the available options in the fields of economics, politics, and development.
When such visions are absent, countries find themselves governed by the rhythm of emerging changes – from market turmoil to sudden economic pressures and regional tensions that impose themselves on state decisions – instead of establishing an economic presence that allows them to genuinely participate in the production and trade networks that link countries together.
Emergency management culture in the Arab world
In many cases, Arab governments find themselves caught between sharp geopolitical shifts, complex regional conflicts, and mounting internal social pressures. This situation often pushes them to adopt a “rescue management” mentality, where immediate, short-term solutions take precedence over structural reforms.
Development experiences confirm that economies run with this mindset, i.e. without a strategic framework, are less able to withstand fluctuations or absorb economic and political shocks, and even less able to invest in emerging opportunities in the new global economy, whether in the digital economy, clean energy, or global supply chains.
The legacy of the rentier state and its impact on development
In addition to all of this, the “rentier state” theory is still strongly present in explaining aspects of the Arab reality; as most economies are still dependent on oil and gas as a primary source of income, which postpones addressing the question of economic diversification and rebuilding a different growth model.
Natural rent, when not managed within a clear transformative vision, tends to fix repetitive patterns of production and consumption, weaken incentives for innovation, and reduce the urgent need to build new productive sectors capable of global competition.
Institutions as a prerequisite for the success of any vision
Some Arab countries suffer from a clear weakness in their institutional structures, whether in their administrative apparatus, decision-making mechanisms, or oversight and accountability systems. From the perspective of the new institutional economics, the quality of institutions is a central determinant of the success of any strategic vision; a vision without a capable executive body and a stable institutional structure becomes a mere theoretical concept, confined to official documents.
The problem is exacerbated when society is excluded from the process of formulating visions, and the real space is not given to the private sector, civil society, universities and think tanks to participate in engineering the future, so the vision loses part of its societal legitimacy, and the chances of its sustainable implementation are weakened.
Knowledge and data… the basis of decision-making
At the heart of this picture lies another equally important challenge: the scarcity of reliable data and the weakness of the knowledge infrastructure. While modern economies are now governed by the logic of “evidence-based decision-making,” economies in the Arab region suffer from deficiencies in national statistical structures and a limited capacity of research centers and think tanks to provide accurate strategic analysis for decision-makers.
The absence of a solid knowledge base makes it difficult to move beyond the logic of immediate response and short-term solutions towards future planning, and prevents the transition from disparate policies to integrated policies.
From political will to long-term vision
If the Arab world is to break free from its vicious cycles, a transformation in the very process of vision-making is essential. Change begins with a firm political will that sets long-term goals and objectives, transcending short-sighted administrative considerations and stemming from a clear national vision that defines development priorities over an extended period.
Such a will requires a stable political and security environment that allows for long-term planning and gives investors and local communities confidence in the continuity of policies and the consistency of their directions.
Human capital is a prerequisite for entering the knowledge economy.
However, willpower alone is insufficient unless it is supported by genuine development of human capabilities. Investing in human capital has become the primary prerequisite for entering the knowledge economy. This necessitates fundamentally restructuring vital systems like education, transforming it from a mere transmission and repetition of knowledge into a knowledge-based project that builds capacity, fosters critical thinking, problem-solving and innovation skills, and equips young people with advanced digital skills to be active participants in the platform economy and artificial intelligence. Furthermore, young people need continuous training and development programs that bridge the gap between universities and the labor market, addressing the chronic disconnect between educational outcomes and the needs of the real economy.
Economic diversification… an existential necessity
From an economic perspective, diversifying Arab economies has become an existential necessity, given the global shift towards carbon neutrality and the anticipated decline in the relative role of fossil fuels. The need is to redirect investments towards sectors capable of generating high added value, such as advanced technology, smart industries, culturally and intellectually enriching tourism, sustainable agriculture, and renewable energy.
This calls for a competitive business environment based on simplifying procedures, establishing the rule of law in the economic field, and opening the way for local and foreign investments within clear and stable frameworks.
Knowledge economy and entrepreneurship as an engine of growth
Building a genuine knowledge economy in the region cannot be achieved without a qualitative shift in spending on research and development, and support for entrepreneurial environments, business incubators, and innovative startups.
International experience indicates that countries that have succeeded in moving to the center of the global economy did not do so by imitating others, but rather by developing their own solutions, based on the accumulation of local knowledge and on genuine partnerships between universities, industries, civil society and the state.
Technology and artificial intelligence are at the heart of the new vision.
In the era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, digital technology is becoming a structural element in any Arab strategic vision. Digital transformation in both the public and private sectors opens the door to leaps in efficiency, productivity, and service quality, and enables governments to build new models of governance and public administration based on open data, transparency, and direct interaction with citizens.
Furthermore, the use of artificial intelligence and big data enables decision-makers to read societal and economic trends in real time, and to intervene proactively in health, education, transportation and environmental issues, instead of merely reacting late.
Regional integration… a lever for Arab development
At the same time, no Arab state, regardless of its individual capabilities, can single-handedly confront the challenges of food and water security, climate change, or the volatility of the global economy. This underscores the need for a new regional integration approach, based on the creation of more effective Arab economic blocs, the development of regional value chains, the linking of infrastructure between countries, and the coordination of industrial, trade, and energy policies.
This logic, consistent with theories of regional integration and major economic blocs, gives the region greater weight in the face of global powers, and transforms the Arab market into a space capable of attracting major investments and establishing economic entities that transcend national markets.
Modern Arab visions as the beginnings of a new path
The transformations of recent years reveal the clear beginnings of this trajectory, with Arab states launching ambitious strategic visions such as Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, Egypt’s Vision 2030, and the UAE’s Vision 2071.
These visions, despite their differing contexts, share a common goal: to transition from a rentier economy to a more diversified one, and from a technology-consuming society to one that strives to produce and utilize knowledge.
However, the true value of these experiences lies in their ability to become a framework for building a comprehensive regional consciousness, rather than merely isolated national initiatives, and to transform the entire region into a space for innovative ideas in managing economic and social transformation.
The Arab Vision for a New Development Model
: Building a strategic vision for the Arab world is a path that can redefine the region’s position on the global stage. It will reveal whether the region will remain an arena where the interests of others intersect, or whether it will become an active player possessing the soft and hard power to formulate its own agenda. This vision is not so much a written document as it is a process of continuous collective learning and adaptation to changes without losing its overall direction or overarching goal.
Today, the question of whether the Arab world can transition to a new development model that restructures the relationship between the state, the economy, and society in the post-globalization era seems urgent. The Arab region possesses exceptional assets: sufficient diversity to generate different visions, the resources to launch major projects, and a youthful energy capable of forging a new wave of modernization and renewal. What is lacking in the current landscape is the intellectual will to view the future as a realm for creating opportunities.
Building a new development model requires political and economic vision capable of anticipating possibilities, executive capabilities that ensure sustainability, and a social consensus that recognizes development as a long-term process. At this point, strategic visions transform into practices that contribute to knowledge creation and the development of sustainable and equitable economic and social systems for future generations.
