Global risks in 2023

Date: 25 - 01 - 2023

Source: Al-Ahram Egyptian newspaper

Dr.. Ali Mohamed Al-Khouri

Global indicators expect that the year 2023 is awaiting many global risks, whose first episodes began in 2020 with the outbreak of the Corona pandemic, and its extension with the Russian-Ukrainian war. In addition, the global environmental differences and effects are now threatening unprecedented rates of pollution and ecological risks such as hurricanes, disasters, torrential rains and droughts, to which many countries around the world have already been exposed, and have caused the deterioration of agricultural crops in millions of hectares of cultivated land and have consequently exacerbated the food availability crisis. , and the threat to global food security as a whole, and warns of an expansion of famines during the next decade.

The world is on the verge of serious and major environmental and societal crises: The report issued by the World Economic Forum under the name of the Global Risks Report indicated that the next decade will witness environmental and societal crises, driven by underlying geopolitical and economic trends, which may cause very serious living crises in the world. The report classifies the cost of living crisis as one of the most severe global risks during the next two years, which will reach its peak in the short term.

The report stressed that the continuation of the current environmental policies and the lack of change will cause major changes in the climate, biodiversity, food security and consumption of natural resources, and the result will be an acceleration of the collapse of the entire ecosystem, thus threatening life in all its forms on the planet.

The report indicated that the economic effects that resulted from the Corona pandemic and the ongoing war in Ukraine led to sharp rises in global inflation levels, and a rapid normalization of monetary policies in developed and emerging countries, which are bets that may not necessarily mean stopping the free fall of markets.

According to expectations, and with the continuation of the battle of rising prices, the global economy is on a date with sharp declines in growth, and a decline in global investment rates. All of this, in turn, will place more inflationary pressures on governments and central banks over the next two years at least, amid the possibility of the continuation of the current war between Russia and Ukraine, and the continuation of the pandemic’s stranglehold on the global economy, as a result of the continuation of the epidemic and its expansion in China, and the continuation of economic wars between international powers, which It is stimulating disruptions in global supply chains, which lead to sharp rises in the prices of materials and commodities.

The report states that global economic fragmentation, geopolitical tensions, and attempts to restructure faltering projects will lead to a multiplication of the effects of the global debt distress in the world over the next ten years. According to a report by the Institute of International Finance, the total global debt has exceeded the $300 trillion barrier in 2022, which fuels the risk of a decline in the ability of many governments to pay debts.

Erosion of global economic gains as a result of economic pressures: The report of the World Economic Forum, which includes the opinions of more than 1,200 experts and policy makers, shows that economic pressures will lead to the erosion of the gains achieved by middle-income families, which will lead to increasing calls to strengthen community protection programs. in different countries of the world, whether rich or poor. In addition, the geopolitical dispersion between governments and states would lead to a geographical and economic war between global and regional powers, and would increase the possibility of multi-field conflicts around the world.

The report showed that states and governments will have to intervene in the markets in order to use defensive economic policies to protect the internal economy, in order to build self-sufficiency in needs, and to obtain independence and sovereignty from the conflicting great and international powers. The report revealed that economic conflict and competition between global and regional powers may cause military conflict and competition, amidst the rise in military spending and a return to the global arms race. What will distinguish the scene in this arena is the degree of dependence on modern technologies and artificial intelligence technology in the military fields, which may enter the world into a dark tunnel that may cause global risks such as the outbreak of regional and international wars in which modern technologies are used, and its destructive forces in the world will be large and wide. Compared to what was common in recent decades.

The way to the future: The report of the World Economic Forum showed that the world is on the verge of worrying future decades that will witness a group of complex crises, represented in their simplest forms in acute shortages of food, water, minerals and materials necessary for life, and will cause serious humanitarian and environmental crises, including wars over water and the spread of famines. It will result in the death of millions of people. In light of all these expectations, this requires the international community to agree on terms and concepts to maintain global stability and security, by addressing the issue of eroding trust between global powers, strengthening global collective capabilities in order to prevent emerging crises across borders and responding to them, and strengthening barriers that We put it in place to address entrenched risks.