Abu Dhabi

Source: Alittihad Newspaper

Mufakiru Alemarat

Dr. Ali Mohamed Al Khouri

Emerging markets are expected to witness an economic recovery this year (2024), following the recession they experienced last year. Expectations indicate that many Arab economies will achieve growth estimated at about 3.3 percent this year, compared to 2.2 percent in 2023. This growth comes in light of the continuing structural challenges associated with excessive reliance on specific sectors, the high level of public debt, and the weak efficiency of public bodies. private sector and its transparency, labor market imbalances, political unrest, inadequate infrastructure, and social disparities; In addition to external economic weakness related to global market conditions and foreign policies. Together, these factors represent obstacles to achieving sustainable economic growth and comprehensive development in emerging Arab markets despite their rapid economic growth and the development of their infrastructure and financial markets.

Inflation rates are likely to decline to about 3.6 percent this year, compared to 9.3 percent last year. This decline is due to several factors, including the decline in pressures affecting the value of national currencies against foreign currencies, in addition to the decline in fluctuations in food and energy prices. Reports indicate that public policies in Arab countries are expected to focus on amending financial and monetary policies to face current economic challenges, reconsider support policies, strengthen social safety networks, and develop monetary frameworks that support economic and financial stability.

In general, the economic performance of the Arab countries will witness a noticeable difference. Affected by major international events, such as the continuing war in Ukraine. The Gulf Cooperation Council countries are likely to achieve good economic growth, benefiting from the recovery in oil markets. Likewise, Egypt is looking forward to achieving growth of 4.3 percent, driven by the increasing demand for gas, and countries affected by conflicts, such as Iraq and the less developed Arab countries, are also likely to witness a noticeable improvement in their economic performance.

Although general expectations remain optimistic, structural challenges will remain an obstacle. Public sector debt remains a source of concern in a number of Arab countries. Growth prospects in the medium term are relatively weak. The diversity of economic conditions throughout the Arab world requires the adoption of specific policies according to the unique social and economic characteristics of each region. This means that national measures must be responsive to the general economic situation and local factors that affect the overall economy of each Arab country.

With regard to economic and social development, the Arab countries still face major challenges in the labor market sector, one of which is the noticeable high unemployment rates, which negatively affects the economic and social stability in the region. According to international statistics, data indicate that the unemployment rate in Arab countries is still high, with an average of 8 to 10 percent. There is no doubt that such complex challenges – which coincide with the limited ability of Arab economies to provide sufficient job opportunities for young people and job seekers – may, in their simplest forms, lead to the accumulation and deepening of economic and social problems, and close the exit points from these crises.

What we see is that the year 2024 will represent another challenging journey for Arab economies, despite the seemingly promising prospects for growth. National policies must work with a strategic vision to find a balance between meeting immediate economic needs, such as confronting inflationary pressures, and laying the foundations for long-term sustainable development. Policies in Arab countries must address the issue of social disparities by improving the labor market situation, implementing effective measures to promote investment in various economic sectors, supporting and encouraging the establishment and growth of small companies and emerging projects, providing vocational training for young people, refining their skills, and ensuring their alignment with actual and practical needs. realistically.

We stress the importance of enhancing regional cooperation and trade integration that leads to opening new markets and enhancing economic growth. Arab countries can work to reduce trade barriers, harmonize regulations, and create a more integrated Arab market. These guidelines would support the trend of Arab economies towards integration into the global economic system and build the foundations of flexibility and adaptability. These are pillars of action capable of overcoming many of the expected challenges and harnessing the opportunities that arise from the changing global landscape.