Fitch Solutions Report: Household Spending in MENA via Digital Channels to Reach $63.5 Billion in 2026
A recent Fitch Solutions report revealed that household spending in the Middle East and North Africa region through digital channels will reach $63.5 billion in 2026, with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE leading the growth landscape, as local platforms such as Noon engage in fierce competition with global e-commerce giants.
Continued Expansion in Market Size
According to the Fitch Solutions report titled “E-Commerce Outlook in the Middle East and North Africa,” household spending in the region through digital channels is expected to reach $63.5 billion in 2026, with annual growth of 8%. The data was relayed by the Egyptian Cabinet’s Information and Decision Support Center and published by several Arab media outlets.
The report projects that regional e-commerce expansion will continue at an annual growth rate of about 7% between 2026 and 2030, reaching approximately $82.6 billion by 2030. E-commerce’s share of total household spending will also rise from 4%–7% before the COVID-19 pandemic to 7%–10% in 2026, reflecting a structural shift in consumer behavior toward digital shopping.
Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE in the Lead
At the national market level, Saudi Arabia maintains its position as the largest e-commerce market in the region. Fitch projections indicate that digital spending in Saudi Arabia will reach $17.8 billion in 2026. According to Mordor Intelligence data, the Saudi e-commerce market is estimated at about $31.29 billion in 2026, with projections to reach $54.87 billion by 2031, at a compound annual growth rate of 11.92%.
Egypt and the UAE are classified among the fastest-growing markets in the region. Egypt’s young demographic structure—where those under 40 make up about 70% of the total population—provides a continuous driver for e-commerce consumption. Mobile transaction rates in both the UAE and Saudi Arabia exceed 60%, making smartphones a primary gateway for e-commerce in the region.
Competition: Global Giants, Regional Platforms, and Cross-Border Trade
The competitive landscape in Middle East e-commerce features a clear triangular structure. On one hand, Amazon, through its Amazon.sa and Amazon.ae platforms, maintains leadership in traffic in both the Saudi and UAE markets. SimilarWeb data for March 2026 shows that Amazon remains at the top of monthly visits in the Saudi market, with its lead margin expanding.
On the other hand, the regional platform Noon—which originated in the region—has become a competitor that cannot be ignored, engaging in direct confrontation with Amazon in both the Saudi and UAE markets. Industry analyses indicate that Noon, through its deep understanding of local consumption habits and competitive pricing strategy, has succeeded in gaining broad acceptance among consumers in specific regional categories and products. Noon plans an initial public offering within the next two years to expand its market influence.
The third force is represented by Chinese cross-border e-commerce platforms—Shein, Trendyol, AliExpress, and Temu—which together form an influential third pole. These platforms rely on competitive prices and wide product variety, giving them a notable share of cross-border trade. In the beauty and personal care category in Saudi Arabia, for example, cross-border trade accounts for 15%–20% of digital sales, with Shein, Trendyol, Temu, and AliExpress being the main players in this channel.
The Localization Battle and Platform Strategies
The essence of competition is shifting from expansion in sheer size to the ability to execute locally. According to industry observations, Amazon’s performance in some regional markets (such as Israel) fell short of expectations, with its market share not exceeding 6%, while AliExpress, Temu, and Shein combined captured about 75% of order share. The analysis suggests that the Israeli consumer prefers buying directly from local specialized retailers rather than relying on comprehensive platforms, reflecting the pivotal role of local operations and price transparency in regional markets.
In the Saudi market, the Mordor Intelligence report indicates that competitive dynamics center on Amazon.sa, Noon, and fast-growing local merchant enablement platforms such as Zid and Salla, which are expanding AI-powered personalized recommendation services and SME onboarding services. At the same time, platforms’ private labels are reshaping category economics, with private label shares in Nice One and Nahdi sales in the Saudi beauty and personal care sector reaching 17%–18%.
Structural Drivers: Young Population, Urbanization, and Payment Transformation
The fundamental logic of regional e-commerce growth rests on several structural factors. The young population is the primary driver, with about 70% of the MENA region’s population under 40. High urbanization rates—with more than two-thirds of the population living in urban areas—also lower last-mile delivery costs and accelerate execution efficiency.
Digital transformation in payments is also a pivotal factor. Saudi Arabia’s national payment network “mada” processed $52.6 billion in e-commerce transactions in 2024, with growth of 25.8%. At the regional level, preference for cash on delivery declined by 51%, amid the spread of digital wallets and buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) solutions. In the Saudi market, the compound annual growth rate for mobile wallets is 14.71%, and STC Pay has 8 million users, driving the shift from cash to digital payments.
Source
Source: Fitch Solutions report “E-Commerce Outlook in the Middle East and North Africa,” Mordor Intelligence report on the Saudi e-commerce market, Redseer consulting data, SimilarWeb data, and industry analyses.
