Source: Akhbar El-Youm newspaper
Dr.. Ali Mohamed Al-Khouri
An in-depth view of the current events on the international stage, confirms with certainty that the global economy is going through a severe and complex state of conflict between the major economic powers. The effects of these conflicts on the global economy clearly after the Russian-Ukrainian war – which is the largest in Europe since World War II – and caused a global economic crisis related to food and energy supplies and prompted unexpected events such as high historical inflation rates that threatened the social component and consequently the stability of governments; With the outbreak of demonstrations in many capitals of the world recently, condemning the crazy rises in prices.
Perhaps what the global economy is witnessing is a major setback, as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in light of America gathering its camp against Russia and its supporters, and Russia’s use of food, gas and oil as tactical war cards in the conflict, which have resulted in direct and severe social and humanitarian repercussions, which will not only slow down economic growth And even to worrying future scenarios, amid what the world is witnessing from an endless set of crises and grinding conflicts, which apparently will not allow anyone to emerge victorious.
It is clear that no one will be spared from paying the price of the current crisis! Global reports confirm that the ongoing war and the sanctions imposed on the Russian camp, and the repercussions of the “Covid-19” pandemic, will cause sharp contractions in global growth rates, as global growth forecasts fell to 3.6% for the years 2022 and 2023. Great entities such as the European Union found themselves caught in the crossfire of the ongoing war, whose growth expectations for the current year fell by 2.7%, and the inflation rate rose to 6.1%.
The situation is the same in all countries of the world, even if they do not have a camel or a camel in the matter! The war exacerbated a series of shocks that disrupted many commodity and financial supply chains to the global economy, which caused sharp price hikes and affected commodity importers, especially in Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, as well as its impact on the rise in prices. Food and energy prices and harm to low-income families worldwide, which predict famine in many countries of the world; It is the one whose first effects appeared when Sri Lanka reached the brink of bankruptcy, the last of which was Somalia, whose president announced a few days ago that the country was entering a famine.
Undoubtedly, inflationary pressures have become a clear and present danger in many countries, as a result of what we see of the raging international conflicts, which may of course lead to the continuation of the rise in inflation rates, and new and more severe rises that will lead to a further rise in the prices of raw materials and imbalances Supply and demand, which will put pressure on production and limit its sufficiency for market needs, and the tendency of central banks to tighten their monetary policies, which may expose financial markets to decline and economic stagnation – in succession – which will drag with it the already deteriorating unemployment rates!
The nature of the current crisis is very serious globally, with the entry of many poles into the directions of global conflicts – the technological, economic and political poles – including China due to its proximity to Russia facing the American-European camp, the American-Chinese tension in Taiwan, the border mobilization between Serbia and Kosovo, and the other between Many countries, and the expectation of the continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian war, invites us to say that what the global economy will witness will not stop at the threshold of the expected high inflation in the coming years, but will cause a global economic depression, similar to the depression of the thirties of the last century, which resulted in a global economic collapse, It was followed by a devastating second world war whose social, economic and political effects have been for decades.
What is happening on the international scene, in light of the ease of resorting to weapons and open conflict, and economic wars that do not accept the principle of abundance and success for all, but rather seek old, more primitive forms of conflict that require the need to reach a victor versus a defeated will raise the possibilities of future conflicts and also warn of what is more dangerous, which is These conflicts – whether they are visible, declared or secret, that were postponed or dealt with by diplomatic means – turn into a global war that destroys the world and pushes governments to enter the arena of open conflict taking advantage of the global chaos, and in the presence of thousands of nuclear, cluster and biological bombs around the world , We will all face very dangerous possibilities that lead to the destruction of humanity and human civilization, which will take in its way those who decided to participate in wars or opt for peace and neutrality!
Today, the wise men of governments and their institutions, and thinkers, especially the centers for strategic studies and decision support, as well as media platforms, must use soft diplomacy and give priority to the language of reason, wisdom and peace between the parties in dealing with economic and political conflicts by finding logical and radical solutions that allow the restoration of the principle of success and victory for all rather than an end in which there is defeat and destruction for all.