Article: What happened after Russia’s general mobilization decision

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Date: 30 - 09 - 2022

Abu Dhabi

Source: mufakiru Alemarat

Dr.. Ali Mohamed Al Khouri

World markets witnessed a state of anxiety and shock after Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, announced the partial mobilization of hundreds of thousands of reservists to fight in Ukraine, and confirmed that his country is ready to use all its defensive and combat means to protect itself and its territorial sovereignty, while waving the use of nuclear force, a severe threat that may indicate the transition of the fuse of the war between Russia and Ukraine to a new stage, and the outbreak of a terrifying World War.

 

World War by proxy

 

What supports this theory is what America and its Western camp are doing of information and military armament in Ukraine, and the mobilization of American and European fighters towards the territory of Russia and its borders through Poland and Sweden on the European continent; what really highlights the features of a global proxy war against Russia in Ukraine-albeit in its early stages – with the escalation of statements by the UN Security Council and the international community, which demands the Russian government to withdraw from Ukrainian territory and stop the war; and NATO promises to protect the NATO countries at all costs.

 

China-Taiwan conflict

 

Also, what increases the likelihood of a crisis in the situation and the transition of the war to the East is the entry of China into the line of war, and the readiness of the “dragon” to use military force to annex Taiwan and retrieve it from the American bosom at any historical stage, which may be now or after several years; however, what causes more concern is the pledges of the United States of America to protect Taiwan, then deploying military equipment near the island and the Chinese borders; which exacerbated the tensions of the situation in the region, which has become heavily armed with American and Taiwanese military units on the one hand, and Chinese military units on the other, amid a state of alert that does not exclude the entry of Japan and the two Koreas and Russia is in this conflict.

Recession and depression

 

All these events are undermining the global economy, entering it into the tunnel of slowdown, deflation and recession, after it was weakened by successive suffocating crises in the past years. We find that the time periods between global disasters with an economic impact in our modern time have become very close; indeed, they overlap, after they were-before – up to about ten years between one crisis and another sometimes; we also find today that the speed of such crises, and their complexity, double the degree of complexity of their elements, effects and burdens.

 

The impact of everything that is happening in the global arena will drive more fears in the world markets, which are witnessing imbalances in the labor markets due to the high prices of raw materials and energy, and the uncertainty surrounding the supply chains, which implies the likelihood that a number of business sectors will cease production, the continuing series of decline in the economic performance of countries, and the decline in the average per capita gross national income with inflation rates reaching historic record levels.

 

The pessimistic novel (The War continues)

 

Many analysts believe that the current war will be prolonged so that the “American Eagle” can reduce the strength of the “Russian bear” and weaken its ability to hold out no matter how long it takes. With the insistence of American policy on consolidating the principle of unipolar hegemony policy, this means using other “cards” to exclude the Chinese dragon from another side, which is what we can imagine with more reckless policies that originally highlight the hidden agendas of the”Wild Eagle”, which shows that it will not accept the entry of new competitors that may threaten its existing political, cultural, economic and social control, and this is enough to divide the world on itself, and create geopolitical alliances between different countries of the world, and economic and political repositioning.

 

Anxiety and volatility in the markets

 

It is expected that global markets will remain in a state of volatility, especially metals, currencies, oil and gas, which are vital sectors that drive the joints of national economies, in light of international statements that have become breath-holding for the world waiting for how serious things may turn out, especially in Ukraine, and the ability of the Russian economy to withstand increasing Western sanctions, a measure that will determine the reaction of the markets.

In the midst of all this, the path to global peace and security is still foggy and bumpy; indeed, the already deteriorating economic conditions in many countries of the world and the continuation of the series of international conflicts will cast a shadow over New spikes in energy and food prices, which may increase the likelihood of chaos in the international system and the outbreak of regional wars that will drag the whole world towards more lurches, slides and unknown fate.

 

Economic consequences of the crisis

 

Under these circumstances, the world has undoubtedly become on the thresholds of a historical stage, at a time when the impact of global events affects all components and social classes everywhere in the world without exception; inflation levels are at their peak, and inherently impose complex challenges that will not only leave scars; but may soon turn into more painful suffering. In addition, we observe the decline of capital, the conservatism of international investments, the diminishing economic opportunities, the high levels of interest, which means more strangulation of economic activities, the weakening of small and medium-sized enterprises, the decline in per capita income and living conditions, and the destruction of individual savings.

 

The question that arises is: what will be the harsh consequences of what may happen in the markets of developing and emerging economies, especially in the Arab region, more than half of whose countries are described as fragile And how well can its weak slats withstand these sliders What can be said for certain is that the continuation of the war or the expansion of these conflicts will, according to the most reasonable expectations, lead to the elimination of millions, starving or killed; the outcome may rise to the most ominous consequences if the global conflict intensifies and turns into a global war in which the world economy enters a vestibule from which it will not be easy to get out, but then the survival of the human race and its civilization will be at stake.

 

The optimistic novel (peace agreement)

 

The optimistic version of some observers indicates that Putin’s statements are nothing but a media Dodge in which he is trying to justify the military operation and calm the national Interior in light of the international strangulation of the Russian economy, expecting that this will be followed by a lull, and that the effects of the Russian escalation on the markets and the global economy will gradually become apparent within the next few weeks. The Russians, if they continue with their announced plans, will get four states rich in natural resources and bordering the Black Sea, and the Ukrainians may be content with liberating vast areas in the northeast of the Kharkiv region; this balance may encourage both sides to accept a cease-fire and conclude a peaceful agreement justifying the cessation of hostilities.

 

In the same context, the other possible scenario is the continuation of the war, hit-and – run battles, and partial field victories; but by prolonging the war, the “American Eagle” will have achieved its goals by weakening the power of the “Russian bear” and reducing it on the one hand, and tightening the noose on the “Chinese dragon” on the other, and between them the European, which will be exhausted by the repercussions of the war for a long time; while the American economy will maintain its dominance-even for some time-and the world economy will only have to adapt to the events; that is, the world may be facing a strong economic recovery in the next five years at the very least.

 

Safe exit scenario

 

We still believe that the wise people of the world should review the causes of that war, and that stubbornness, gradual and endlessly mutual escalation by the conflicting parties East and West, will never lead to good, and that expectations will be reduced to the worst according to each slide in which the conflicting parties fall. Here, it should also be expected that the voice of reasonable and logical people will be louder at this stage; to call for a fair solution for all parties that promotes the acceptance of the Russian and Ukrainian sides of calm, and satisfaction with partial victories and successes for each of them.

 

From this point of view, with the calm of the situation and the cessation of fighting, we can expect-after a reasonable test period for the stability of peace-to discover that high interest rates and shrinking markets have led to an important result-the accumulation of large wealth that is neither activated nor invested. And here – as the classics of modern economics say-the subsequent reduction of interest rates will entice the re-employment of funds saved in the markets directly in the form of large production projects; to absorb labor, reduce unemployment, and increase the volume of production; which creates competition leading to lower prices and further economic recovery, in exchange for what was from deflation and depression. Such a corrective scenario may take two to four years once hostilities cease, and calm and peace come.

British Institute of Technology in London grants a full professorship to the Chairman of the Arab Federation for the Digital Economy

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Date: 28 - 09 - 2022

London, UK

His Excellency Dr. Ali Mohamed Al-Khouri, Advisor to the Council of Arab Economic Unity in the Arab League and Chairman of the Arab Federation for the Digital Economy, received a Full Professorship in Digital Economy from the British Institute of Technology in London, according to a press release published by the federation Yesterday.

Founded in 1999 and headquartered in London, the Institute is the fifth largest private educational institution in the United Kingdom by number of students, and intensively involved in providing consultancy and research. The Institute relies heavily on government and private consultation and funding to develop educational programs and projects to address the gap between Industry and higher education.

Merlin Hay, Earl of Erroll, Chair of the Council and Chancellor of the Institute, stated that Dr. Ali M. Al-Khouri is one of the global figures who have been able to link science and practice and work towards building local, regional and global capacities, and that the quality and collection of his research and publications reflect and document the extent of his sobriety and leadership in the fields of sustainable development, and more specifically in the areas of digital transformation.

On a separate note, Professor Dr. Muhammad Farmer, the Chief Executive and Founder of Institute, said that Dr. Ali M. Al-Khouri was deservedly awarded the professorship, and that his publications and achievements reflect the progress of his scientific and practical approaches, and that his work has become international references in academia and for practitioners worldwide.

His Excellency Dr. Ali M. Al-Khouri expressed his sincere appreciation and gratitude for the British Institute of Technology, and stated that this represents a great honour and incentive, and that he will continue to work with his fellow researchers at the Institute and the global community of practitioners and researchers to develop practices that contribute towards positive and sustainable development of human societies.

Dr. Ali Mohamed Al-Khouri holds a Bachelor of Science degree from the University of Manchester, a Master of Science in Information Management from Lancaster University, and an Engineering Doctorate in Strategic Programs Management from the University of Warwick in the United Kingdom.

He appeared in 2018, among the 100 most important international personalities list who contributed to the development of digital government applications worldwide. He has published more than 140 books that include methodologies and frameworks concerned with the development of digital ecosystems, and sustainable knowledge economies.

His Excellency Ali M. Al Khouri has worked and successfully implemented over the past three decades a wide range of strategic national and international programs in the UAE and in the Arab and African regions. He also worked with multiple international organizations, such as the World Economic Forum, the European Union and the United Nations, and participated in preparing several global reports, in addition to serving as a strategic advisor to a number of African governments and global financial institutions.

President of the Arab Federation for the Digital Economy to the Newspaper “Al-Bilad Saudi”: Unique technological leaps that lead to globalization

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Date: 23 - 09 - 2022

Source: Albilad Saudi newspaper

Maha Al-Awawda

Dr.. Ali Mohamed El Khouri

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has become among the most advanced countries in the field of information and communication technology, and is making its way to be part of the advanced ranks among the 7 countries in the field of information and communication technology, which is now euphemistically called the “Fourth Industrial Revolution.”

The Kingdom ranked eighth globally in terms of the efficiency of the use of information and communication technology by the government and official bodies in carrying out their work, and the extent to which the quality of government services to the population in the field of information technology improved, and in the ninth place globally in terms of the government’s success in encouraging the use of information and communication technology.

The Kingdom also ranked 15th in terms of broadband subscriptions to the Internet for laptops per 100 people, and 18th in terms of the quality of services provided by the government on the Internet. This indicator evaluates the government’s implementation of Internet service projects.

How do you see the Kingdom ’s  proactive vision in preparing the digital infrastructure?

With its ambitious strategic vision 2030, the Kingdom has been able to achieve great and tangible leaps and record achievements in a short period of time. The report of the Arab Index of the Digital Economy issued in 2022 showed that the Kingdom rose during the period (2020-2022) from fourth place to second place among Arab countries, which confirms that it is pursuing unconventional development patterns and accelerators.

The report also shows that the Kingdom has raised the average internet speed from 9 Mbit/s in 2017 to 109 Mbit/s in 2020, and has delivered broadband services to all remote areas to connect all communities and regions with advanced infrastructure that achieves the Kingdom’s vision of building one of the most important capabilities of the digital economy. Which is the speed of the Internet connection.

In order to more accurately express the radical growth of the infrastructure in the Kingdom, it is worth mentioning the project of digital authentication services based on public encryption keys (PKI), which was strengthened by the establishment of the National Center for Digital Certification to issue public certification certificates within the framework of an integrated package of procedures, infrastructure and legislation to enhance and secure transactions e; This will jump all digital activities to a new dimension that may be the most modern and unique of its kind regionally and globally.

We can also see the extent of the seriousness in the digital development movement in the Kingdom, where the Board of Directors of the Digital Government Authority was formed, headed by ministers and senior officials in the state, and this is reflected in the Kingdom’s insistence on facing and overcoming the difficulties and obstacles that may encounter the implementation of its digital plans and agendas, which we see as a step It is very important to confront the traditional resistance that digital transformation projects face, as we usually find that government institutions do not engage in the transformation process seriously enough, and do not integrate properly, which often delays government plans or wastes resources on government projects that do not achieve their goals efficiently and effectively. Hence, this council, with its formation, represents a strategic decision that seriously places the government’s weight behind this digital transformation.

 What is the impact of this on the development movement ?

There is no doubt that digital empowerment of various services and economic activities doubles national capabilities and speeds up the growth rates of general output, according to what various studies and country experiences show. Also, according to the report of the Arab Digital Economy Index, every (2%) increase in the result of the Digital Economy Index will be matched by an increase in GDP by about (5%-10%); This indicates the depth and effectiveness of digital transformation in enhancing production and developing national economies.

According to the official forecasts issued by the Saudi Ministry of Communications, the rate of contribution of the digital economy will reach 25% of the Saudi economy during the next three years, which is a significant and striking impact, and we expect from our point of view that as the Kingdom continues to implement its digital plans and agendas at the current pace, the size of the contribution It may exceed a third of the Saudi economy by 2030.

The  effect of this on the speed of completion of transactions?

Within the smart government strategy (2020-2024), the Kingdom has approved the principle of “one visit”, which is intended to provide data from individuals and companies for one time without repetition, and to rely on electronic linkage between government databases, which would contribute to automating procedures and developing services More efficient digital. With the existence of a unified digital identity system in the Kingdom, this would support public and private sector institutions in developing their electronic services and digital applications on smart device platforms, which will not only shorten the time for completing transactions, but may also eliminate the need for traditional service centers.

For example, suppose that after registering the ownership of a property, the owner will not need to repeat obtaining municipal approvals, for example, when he needs to connect services and utilities. The data will be accessed from the database and without the need to revisit the government municipal center again, as the records will be linked to the identity of the individual The data can be verified electronically and automatically according to the data management system that controls the nature of the data available according to the type of government service.

Moreover, if we add the advantages of fast infrastructure, the availability of the Internet, and the growth of government services in an integrated digital form, this will mean high and rapid efficiency of operations and a great saving in operating costs and issuance of those services, which can achieve financial savings of tens of billions of riyals in terms of time consumed by the beneficiaries. And the government agency to implement these services manually.

  Does technical strength enhance the effectiveness of cybersecurity ?

With the increasing development of emerging and new technologies, governments and institutions are faced with complex and unprecedented challenges to ensure the protection and continuity of their digital infrastructure. As much as technological solutions provide capabilities to repel potential cyber risks, they also give new capabilities to the developers of cyber attack and deception methods.

According to global estimates, the cybersecurity market and its services is likely to witness significant growth, as a result of the high rates and risks of global cyber-attacks, to protect infrastructure, systems and services from the risks of such attacks and ensure their sustainability.

A study conducted by (Global Market Insights), indicated that investments in the cybersecurity sector will double and reach $300 billion by 2024, with the value of the cybersecurity market in the Middle East and North Africa rising to $2.89 billion by 2026, with an annual growth rate of about 8% during the period (2021-2026). The volume of investments in cybersecurity infrastructure in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is expected to exceed 30 billion riyals by 2023 in light of the expansion of development projects and the need to secure vital infrastructure.

Therefore, enhancing cybersecurity and digital trust comes as a strategic result that can only be achieved through a comprehensive plan in which the government, the business sector and individuals also participate through awareness, digital culture, awareness and training to confront cyber risks. We can see the Kingdom’s efforts in implementing practical and serious national plans through the National Cyber ​​Security Authority in its coordinating efforts between the parties of society and towards securing digital infrastructure, which translates into its ranking second globally among 193 countries in the axis of continuous improvement in the cybersecurity index for 2021. According to the report of the International Telecommunication Union.

The Arab Federation for Digital Economy participates in the activities of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Conference 2022 to discuss global opportunities and challenges

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Date: 22 - 09 - 2022

France

 

The activities of the “Digital Leaders Conference 2022” – in person and remotely – were held on 22-23 September 2022 at the organization’s conference center and the headquarters of the French government’s digital economy and transformation authority, DINUM.

His Excellency the Minister of Digital Transformation and Public Services in the French government opened the opening session of the conference, in the presence of the OECD working group of senior digital government officials from OECD member states, the Arab Union for the Digital Economy and representatives of the World Bank, and this is the first meeting after the pandemic.

 

The Arab Union for Digital Economy participated in the activities of the first day through the Assistant Secretary-General of the Union, Mr. Patrick Al-Osta, as a member of the OECD working group. The meeting dealt with reshaping government services in the digital age to improve response, and public trust, in addition to being the ideal platform for dialogue and exchanging views on practices, policies, tools and approaches.

 

It is worth noting that the “Digital Leaders 2022” conference focused in its current session on four work areas: digital identity, data management and data collection ethics, requirements of citizens and companies, and planning efforts for digital governments.

 

The Arab Federation for Digital Economy is following up with the ATDXT Group the implementation of digital projects in the Arab countries

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Date: 13 - 09 - 2022

Abu Dhabi

 

The Arab Federation for Digital Economy of the Council of Arab Economic Unity of the League of Arab States held a coordination meeting with the ATDXT Group, in the presence of His Excellency Dr. Ali Mohamed Al-Khouri, Advisor to the Council of Arab Economic Unity, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Arab Federation for Digital Economy, Mr. GS Murthy, Founder and CEO of ATDXT Group and representatives from both sides.

The position of a group of initiatives and technical solutions being implemented and expansion plans related to data centers and cloud services were presented with the aim of supporting small and medium-sized companies, improving competitiveness in Arab countries and enhancing their integration into the global economy, especially in the banking, digital education and health sectors.

This meeting comes as part of the Arab Federation for Digital Economy’s executive steps for the “Arab Vision for the Digital Economy”, which was announced in Abu Dhabi at the end of 2018.

The Arab Federation for Digital Economy signs a memorandum of understanding to update the Arab vision for the digital economy

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Date: 01 - 09 - 2022

The Arab Federation for Digital Economy and the British company Scott Logic signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at reviewing and updating the current version of the Arab vision for the digital economy with a team of international experts around the world, where the team will review the latest technologies and new global practices in the field of digital transformation as well as the impact of the Covid pandemic. The world should issue the updated version of the vision and the indicative guide for the programs emanating from it.

 

The Arab vision for the digital economy, announced in December 2018, aims to rebuild and develop the economic systems in the Arab region, and support joint action efforts to promote and develop the digital economy, through a set of goals emanating from it, which amounted to 20 goals, and a set of programs and projects translated into these. The goals, which amount to 52 strategic programs, focused on 6 main areas, following a sectoral analysis of best practices in the business sectors, namely: health care, manufacturing, financial services, education, agriculture, and e-commerce.

The Arab Federation for Digital Economy and Distichain sign a Memorandum of Understanding in support of international e-commerce activities

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Date: 25 - 08 - 2022

Abu Dhabi

 

The Arab Federation for Digital Economy and Distichain signed a memorandum of understanding in the presence of His Excellency Dr.

The agreement aims to adopt digital technology solutions to enable export activities and support digital transformation in the areas of cross-border digital trade and between companies, with the aim of providing more support and strengthening the free trade agreement in the Arab region, and linking with a wide international network of trading partners and logistics service providers. This agreement also aims to enable flexible connectivity between supply chains and promote the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises.

On the other hand, the proposed technological solution provides digital frameworks for B2B commerce compatible with the requirements of a green economy.

The agreement was signed by the Assistant Secretary-General of the Arab Federation for Digital Economy, and the co-founder and CEO of Distichain.

 

End of the work of the extraordinary session of the Economic and Social Council at the ministerial level

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Date: 23 - 08 - 2022

Cairo

Source: League of Arab States

The meetings of the extraordinary session of the Economic and Social Council at the ministerial level, headed by the Arab Republic of Egypt, concluded at the headquarters of the General Secretariat on July 21, 2022.

Her Excellency Ambassador Dr.Haifa Abu-Ghazaleh, Assistant Secretary-General and Head of the Social Affairs Sector, said that the ministers and heads of Arab delegations discussed a number of important topics that were prepared in a way that enhances joint Arab economic and social work, and in a manner that supports the efforts of member states aimed at implementing the 2030 sustainable development plan, with a view to achieving the higher interest. To the Arab citizen, and in this context, she referred to a number of important social development issues that were agreed upon by the meeting, foremost among which is the establishment of the Arab Center for Economic and Social Empowerment Studies in the State of Palestine and what this constitutes for support from the State of Palestine and to deliver an important message in this regard, in addition to introducing the guiding strategic framework For the professionalization of social work, and support for the Republic of Yemen to face health, humanitarian and social challenges, as well as an Arab strategy to promote volunteer work, and a strategy to advance women’s work within the framework of the sustainable development goals. She also referred to a number of topics.Which came under the support of Arab efforts for economic and social recovery from the repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic.

For his part, Ambassador Dr. Mubarak Al-Hajri, Assistant Secretary-General and Head of the Economic Affairs Sector, referred to a number of economic issues submitted to the Arab summit, including the Arab vision for the digital economy, the proper uses of atomic energy, Arab space cooperation, food security, the sustainability of Arab pastures, and other important economic issues. In this context, and in support of joint Arab economic action.

It is worth noting that the holding of this extraordinary session came to discuss the economic and social file of the Council of the League of Arab States at the summit level, to be held in the People’s Democratic Republic of Algeria next November. A meeting was held at the level of senior officials on July 19-20, 2022

 

Complex global crises push unemployment rates to 207 million people in 2022

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Date: 21 - 08 - 2022

Cairo

Source: Elaosboa newspaper

By – Dr. Ali Mohamed El Khouri

 

The global market is witnessing a complex crisis, including economic stagnation, price inflation, and disruptions in supply chains as a result of the “Covid 19” pandemic, the Russian-Ukrainian war and a series of economic and political ideological conflicts between global and regional powers. The course of what is happening on the global stage has cast a shadow on the labor market and caused high unemployment rates among young people and workers, as millions lost their jobs, and millions of companies around the world closed their doors or went bankrupt due to their inability to continue and compete in light of the difficult and harsh conditions the world is currently witnessing.

Estimates show that the number of unemployed people globally reached 207 million people in 2022 compared to 186 million in 2019. And that the number of unemployed youth in 2022 will exceed 73 million, six million higher than the pre-pandemic level, and expectations indicate a new wave of increase Numbers for the year 2023.

At the Arab level, Arab countries record the highest and fastest unemployment rate among youth, with expectations of it reaching 24.8% in 2022, and the unemployment rate among women reaching 42.5% in the same year, which is nearly three times the global average of unemployment for women (14.5%). .

The latest report of the International Labor Organization confirms that the recovery in labor markets will remain slow, with fears of the spread of epidemics and the persistence of challenges in global labor markets, which will make unemployment rates higher than pre-Covid 19 levels until at least 2023.

Global reports warn that these high rates of unemployment will weaken the economic, financial and social fabric in countries, at a time when the prospects are still fragile and the road to recovery is slow and fraught with uncertainty.

The world is already witnessing deep political, social and security problems that in turn are causing significant damage and distortions to labor markets. Not only that, but we also find an equally dangerous increase in poverty and inequality.

The obvious fact is that there can be no real stability without a broad labor market recovery. For this stability to lead to a sustainable recovery, the labor market must be rehabilitated and based on decent work principles – including health, safety, equity and social protection – and this approach should be supported through social dialogue for more correct understanding and transparency between the decision maker and the labor market with all stakeholders, and a vision of A balanced system that brings together the employer, the worker, the community and the family in an interconnected system of benefits without prejudice to one party against the other. Of course, all of this adds a greater burden on policy makers to address the imbalances in the labor market and to develop short and long-term national policies to reduce the employment gap.

In practice, what is clear to us is that the damage to the labor market will take many years to repair, with long-term consequences for the workforce, family income, social cohesion and possibly political.

What policy-makers should be aware of is that unemployment has many negative effects on the individual and society, which may be represented in its simplest forms by depression, mental health, high crime rates, and even affecting the productivity and competitiveness of the economies and security of countries.

In order to save the labor market and reduce the current unemployment gap between the youth and the labor force, it is necessary to develop clear national and regional visions and plans that seek to find real solutions – not pendulum ones – in order to open various economic horizons to accommodate the growing numbers of the unemployed and prepare them and develop them for the labor market; So that the millions of unemployed youth will not be a latent, explosive powder that destroys societies, and is a cause of unrest and problems for governments – especially in poor countries – that are unable to absorb the youth and the unemployed with various social protection programs and choose solutions that leave them to the unknown.

We need to double our capabilities to develop businesses and establish companies, institutions and factories that can absorb the increased labor due to the increase in births and employment of the unemployed. Hence, a radical and decisive review of government policies aimed at encouraging foreign and domestic investment must be reviewed.

The same question arises here, are our countries really attractive to investment compared to other countries? Has the state and its infrastructure, legislative and social status been prepared as one of the national economy enablers and to help the investor to exist with a long-term strategic thought?

If the answers to such questions are not frank, clear and courageous – either yes or no – then the social and economic challenges will continue on the path of exacerbation and will put countries in faltering circles that will inevitably throw them into the arms of an ambiguous and disturbing future, and the solutions will then come at a very high cost!

 

Economic conflicts between international powers are pushing new and disturbing scenarios and global scenes

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Date: 04 - 08 - 2022

Cairo

Source: Akhbar El-Youm newspaper

Dr.. Ali Mohamed Al-Khouri

An in-depth view of the current events on the international stage, confirms with certainty that the global economy is going through a severe and complex state of conflict between the major economic powers. The effects of these conflicts on the global economy clearly after the Russian-Ukrainian war – which is the largest in Europe since World War II – and caused a global economic crisis related to food and energy supplies and prompted unexpected events such as high historical inflation rates that threatened the social component and consequently the stability of governments; With the outbreak of demonstrations in many capitals of the world recently, condemning the crazy rises in prices.

Perhaps what the global economy is witnessing is a major setback, as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in light of America gathering its camp against Russia and its supporters, and Russia’s use of food, gas and oil as tactical war cards in the conflict, which have resulted in direct and severe social and humanitarian repercussions, which will not only slow down economic growth And even to worrying future scenarios, amid what the world is witnessing from an endless set of crises and grinding conflicts, which apparently will not allow anyone to emerge victorious.

It is clear that no one will be spared from paying the price of the current crisis! Global reports confirm that the ongoing war and the sanctions imposed on the Russian camp, and the repercussions of the “Covid-19” pandemic, will cause sharp contractions in global growth rates, as global growth forecasts fell to 3.6% for the years 2022 and 2023. Great entities such as the European Union found themselves caught in the crossfire of the ongoing war, whose growth expectations for the current year fell by 2.7%, and the inflation rate rose to 6.1%.

The situation is the same in all countries of the world, even if they do not have a camel or a camel in the matter! The war exacerbated a series of shocks that disrupted many commodity and financial supply chains to the global economy, which caused sharp price hikes and affected commodity importers, especially in Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, as well as its impact on the rise in prices. Food and energy prices and harm to low-income families worldwide, which predict famine in many countries of the world; It is the one whose first effects appeared when Sri Lanka reached the brink of bankruptcy, the last of which was Somalia, whose president announced a few days ago that the country was entering a famine.

Undoubtedly, inflationary pressures have become a clear and present danger in many countries, as a result of what we see of the raging international conflicts, which may of course lead to the continuation of the rise in inflation rates, and new and more severe rises that will lead to a further rise in the prices of raw materials and imbalances Supply and demand, which will put pressure on production and limit its sufficiency for market needs, and the tendency of central banks to tighten their monetary policies, which may expose financial markets to decline and economic stagnation – in succession – which will drag with it the already deteriorating unemployment rates!

The nature of the current crisis is very serious globally, with the entry of many poles into the directions of global conflicts – the technological, economic and political poles – including China due to its proximity to Russia facing the American-European camp, the American-Chinese tension in Taiwan, the border mobilization between Serbia and Kosovo, and the other between Many countries, and the expectation of the continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian war, invites us to say that what the global economy will witness will not stop at the threshold of the expected high inflation in the coming years, but will cause a global economic depression, similar to the depression of the thirties of the last century, which resulted in a global economic collapse, It was followed by a devastating second world war whose social, economic and political effects have been for decades.

What is happening on the international scene, in light of the ease of resorting to weapons and open conflict, and economic wars that do not accept the principle of abundance and success for all, but rather seek old, more primitive forms of conflict that require the need to reach a victor versus a defeated will raise the possibilities of future conflicts and also warn of what is more dangerous, which is These conflicts – whether they are visible, declared or secret, that were postponed or dealt with by diplomatic means – turn into a global war that destroys the world and pushes governments to enter the arena of open conflict taking advantage of the global chaos, and in the presence of thousands of nuclear, cluster and biological bombs around the world , We will all face very dangerous possibilities that lead to the destruction of humanity and human civilization, which will take in its way those who decided to participate in wars or opt for peace and neutrality!

Today, the wise men of governments and their institutions, and thinkers, especially the centers for strategic studies and decision support, as well as media platforms, must use soft diplomacy and give priority to the language of reason, wisdom and peace between the parties in dealing with economic and political conflicts by finding logical and radical solutions that allow the restoration of the principle of success and victory for all rather than an end in which there is defeat and destruction for all.